A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
